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    中国经济增长新动能统计测度研究 认领

    Research on Statistical Measurement of New Driving Force of China’s Economic Growth
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    摘要 通过梳理新动能的本质特征和构成要素,从投入与产出两个视角构建经济增长新动能指标体系,然后运用基于相对标准化法的综合评价指数对新动能进行动态分析。结果表明:与2013年相比,2014—2018年,中国经济增长新动能定基指数增长显著,产出指数大于投入指数,投入产出效率良好;新动能环比指数高于上一时期,增速表现为升降交替的阶段性特征,产出指数逐渐滞后于投入指数,产出效率有所降低。由于大多数年份新技术、新资本、新人才与新资源环比指数均大于100,增长趋势具有一定的波动性,因此新动能投入环比指数呈现先涨跌交替,继而快速增长的变动趋势;整体上新市场、新创业、新企业、新模式、新产业与新产品环比指数表现为波动式下降,引起新动能产出环比指数增速先升后降,甚至出现负值。新动能处于初步聚集、积累渐进式增长阶段,经济转型是一个长期过程,需要源源不断的创新要素投入才有可能实现新动能的颠覆式增长。 Through further combing the essential characteristics and components of new driving force,this paper constructs a new driving force index system of economic growth from the two perspectives of input and output,and then uses the comprehensive evaluation index based on the relative standardization method to carry out dynamic analysis of new driving force.Firstly,the fixed base index of new driving force continued to rise compared with 2013,the output index is ahead of the input index,and the input-output efficiency of the new driving force is good;The new kinetic energy index is higher than that of the previous period,and the growth rate shows the periodic characteristics of alternating rise and fall,the output index gradually lags behind the input index,and the output efficiency is reduced during 2014-2018.Secondly,in terms of input index,the index of new technology,new capital,new talents and new resources in most years is higher than that in the previous period,and the growth trend has certain volatility,which causes the index of input index to show a trend of rising and falling first and then rapid growth;In terms of output index,the overall new market,new entrepreneurship,new enterprises,new models,new industries and new products index showed a fluctuating decline,which lead to the growth rate of output index rising first and then falling,even a negative value.Finally,new driving force is in the initial stage of accumulation and gradual growth,economic transformation is a long-term process,which requires constant input of innovation factors to achieve subversive growth of new driving force.
    作者 柴士改 李金昌 CHAI Shi-gai;LI Jin-chang(School of Economics,Anyang Normal University,Anyang 455000,China;School of Mathematics and Science,Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China)
    出处 《统计与信息论坛》 北大核心 2021年第1期47-58,共12页 Statistics & Information Forum
    基金 国家社会科学基金青年项目“我国经济发展新动能的统计测度及其效应研究”(18CTJ007)。
    关键词 新动能 创新 投入产出 经济增长 new driving force innovation input-output economic growth
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